Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-02 88599.504882 93467.169484 98331.414108 103553.584989 108997.878522 114502.957701 120486.781152
2025-02-09 80555.528426 88010.989953 95667.930042 104109.018759 113142.729441 122510.052386 132946.800926
2025-02-16 74366.187555 83543.127018 93174.080265 104013.439479 115850.998427 128364.069838 142568.892308
2025-02-23 69986.263377 80479.042694 91691.279718 104528.083168 118781.401735 134085.269541 151721.970105
2025-03-02 66138.648644 77640.723021 90128.179449 104640.359987 120987.359624 138776.947728 159544.320994
2025-03-09 63657.267590 76107.859521 89815.985676 105957.107913 124368.344950 144639.173785 168567.364571
2025-03-16 60437.653804 73531.745707 88141.946514 105559.911677 125662.991921 148038.897411 174726.106358
2025-03-23 58746.264509 72598.361964 88239.063214 107091.515738 129077.207334 153783.281757 183516.289439
2025-03-30 56894.301924 71366.911201 87894.360051 108024.239066 131730.681649 158610.351660 191232.971333
2025-04-06 54800.734082 69745.405063 87000.314199 108228.422307 133464.354161 162324.519537 197632.928190
2025-04-13 52746.436926 68079.070321 85970.230546 108194.275250 134852.450944 165588.618799 203479.145018
2025-04-20 51784.603691 67685.575406 86416.744718 109885.247213 138261.705745 171215.959930 212114.281099
2025-04-27 50837.775095 67293.251672 86862.386390 111591.747391 141730.388117 176981.671078 221020.861336
2025-05-04 49476.813072 66336.800421 86580.337931 112383.692690 144082.063019 181423.063417 228381.265094
2025-05-11 47778.916387 64895.000652 85645.631777 112325.301680 145361.314879 184555.366839 234167.130063
2025-05-18 46484.907685 63915.146067 85240.189189 112882.272220 147365.135745 188547.539286 240993.968947
2025-05-25 45061.817022 62718.993827 84518.374764 113003.753481 148799.920562 191830.052396 246957.136875
2025-06-01 44312.538468 62362.958331 84831.500018 114405.339934 151814.943041 197047.774255 255306.302375
2025-06-08 42780.976477 60935.798208 83736.097113 113982.795760 152515.549302 199398.846979 260128.056588
2025-06-15 42234.932131 60784.873749 84260.232709 115612.418024 155795.968822 204949.096767 268927.357815
2025-06-22 41443.359012 60278.983022 84301.946685 116604.690789 158260.490552 209488.874623 276493.489711
2025-06-29 40362.693643 59351.299665 83764.273068 116821.896598 159718.946117 212763.980750 282489.469447
2025-07-06 39227.150320 58315.247817 83053.441661 116785.572371 160830.808654 215592.145241 287926.820746